Asked about several of Atlanta’s breakout pitching prospects, Vedak described what sounded like a significant philosophical shift inside the organization’s pitching development program.

In previous seasons, he said, the Braves often appeared focused on a fairly specific formula. This year?

“Throw everything and we’ll figure out what works.”

That may sound like a small difference, but for pitching prospects, it could be enormous.

Because if Atlanta has truly changed its approach, the next wave of Braves arms may end up looking very different from the one that came before it.

Let’s talk about it.

The old model

The Braves previously had a very obvious and clear development plan for just about every pitching prospect: shelving secondary pitches in favor of a slider.

If you didn’t have one, now you did. If you already threw one, you were about to throw it a lot more.

Think of it as the pitching equivalent of language immersion. What’s the best way to get comfortable with a slider? Throw it constantly, even when it doesn’t always make sense to use it.

And despite the blanket development milestones given to many of Atlanta’s pitching prospects, that approach wasn’t handed down on stone tablets as a finished plan.

I’ve personally spoken with prospects and sources close to them who described the organization pushing pitchers from gyro sliders toward sweepers, only to later abandon the sweeper experiment almost entirely.

Sometimes the player knew from the beginning that the pitch wasn’t a natural fit. Maybe they had already experimented with it. Maybe they knew their arm action would make it difficult to throw effectively, like a pronator trying to harness spin that didn’t come naturally to them.

But when they pushed back, they were often told the same thing:

Everyone in the organization was trying it.

When players are confused about the answer, it’s often because the organization is still searching for it.

You can see evidence of that evolution in the development path of AJ Smith-Shawver.

When Atlanta drafted him, the scouting report centered around a four-seam fastball and a curveball. By the time he had become the organization’s top prospect, most public evaluations highlighted a hard gyro slider as his primary secondary pitch. The curveball had largely disappeared from the conversation.

Then it came back.

As Smith-Shawver continued developing, the curveball re-emerged, the changeup evolved into a split-change variation, and his arsenal became much more diverse than the relatively straightforward fastball-slider combination that initially defined his prospect rise.

AJ’s journey wasn’t unusual.

It was emblematic of an organization that appeared to be experimenting in real time with what it wanted its pitchers to become.

This year looks different

Things are working differently in Atlanta’s organization now. In previous years, it was essentially four-seam & sweeper or slider development. This year, as Gaurav explained, it's "throw everything and we'll figure out what works."

You can see the change most clearly in JR Ritchie.

Ritchie returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 as a fairly traditional four-seam/slider/changeup pitcher. This season, he has shown all three fastball shapes, leaned heavily on a curveball, and continued using the changeup to generate ground balls.

That’s a dramatically different developmental picture than the one Atlanta was often painting a few years ago.

Teenager Briggs McKenzie, who is on his first full professional season, has already started tinkering with a sinker. 2024 first-rounder Cam Caminiti has both dropped his arm slot and gone from a two-seam/changeup foundation to more of a Chris Sale-esque four-seam/slider base, while playing around with a kick-change. IFA Davis Polo is still on a three-pitch arsenal, 4S/slider/changeup, but frequently pitches ‘backward’ by only using the four-seamer 18% to 20% of the time. Carter Holton, who was known as a 4S/changeup dominant pitcher at Vanderbilt, is now throwing both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball, as well as locating the improved curveball and slider in the zone and still pulling out the changeup when needed.

The common thread here is that…there doesn’t appear to be one common thread.

And that’s the point.

For years, outside observers often described the Braves’ approach as stripping pitchers down to a four-seam fastball and slider, refining those pitches, and then gradually adding other weapons back into the mix.

The current version may be far less prescriptive and more individualized.

Why this makes sense

Pitching development across baseball is becoming more individualized.

Not every pitcher should throw a sweeper.

Not every pitcher should throw a riding four-seamer.

Not every pitcher should chase the same movement profiles.

The best development programs increasingly start with: “What does this pitcher do well already?” instead of “What do we want every pitcher to become?”

The Braves may have realized their greatest advantage isn’t creating one pitching model; it’s helping each pitcher discover his own.

Look at all the names we mentioned above: Briggs McKenzie, Cam Caminiti, Davis Polo, Carter Holton. They all do things differently, and that’s okay.

Not all of them will become stars. But they all look different from each other, and that matters. A development system produces ‘families’ of pitchers - think about St. Louis’s 2010s strategy of sinker-heavy starters that specialized in groundballs and pitching to contact (Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn), or Cleveland leaning into command monsters (Corey Kluber, Zach Plesac), or Houston’s riding four-seam fastballs paired with big breaking balls (Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander).

Development systems often produce families of pitchers.

The Braves’ newest wave increasingly looks like a collection of individuals.

For years, the question surrounding Braves pitching development was whether Atlanta had discovered the right formula.

The more interesting possibility is that they may have stopped looking for one.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Baldwin’s back in the lineup and retakes his leadoff spot.

San Francisco Giants Lineup

2B Luis Arraez
DH Bryce Eldridge
3B Matt Chapman
1B Rafael Devers
RF Jung Hoo Lee
SS Willy Adames
LF Casey Schmitt
CF Drew Gilbert
C Daniel Susac

Quick thoughts:

• No surprises for San Francisco, as they go with their standard lineup here.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-2, 4.05)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.05 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 5.26 FIP

• 20.6% K / 10.1% BB / 10.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% each four-seamer & slider, 10% curveball, 8% each changeup & cutter, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% slider, 31% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% cutter, 2% each curveball & changeup

Who to watch:

• Only four Giants have ever seen Holmes in a game - Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman are both 0-4, while Willy Adames is 1-2 and Rafael Devers is 2-5.

Opposing Starter: RHP Adrian Houser (2-6, 5.54 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.54 ERA / 5.44 xERA / 5.18 FIP

• 15.5 K% / 8.1 BB% / 7.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (45%, 94.7 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 85.3 mph)

• Four-seamer (16%, 95.4 mph)

• Slider (12%, 88.2 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 81.5 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Five-pitch mix with increased changeup/four-seamer usage when ahead and with two strikes, more sinker usage when behind, and increased curveball usage early (and reduced usage with two strikes).

vs RHH: Sinker-dominant mix that eschews four-seamers early for sinkers, reverses that trend when he’s ahead, and increases slider/four-seamer/changeup usage with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• There is a ton of experience against Houser on Atlanta’s roster, and much of it is positive. Most notable for the Braves is Ozzie Albies hitting .375 (16 ABs) and Austin Riley hitting .471 with a homer (17 ABs).

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Atlanta projects to have almost everyone available for tonight’s series opener.

Used recently/potential limitations:

• The only question might be Anthony Molina, who needed 29 pitches to get through his appearance on Sunday afternoon.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Giants throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• San Francisco projects to have everyone available for today’s series opener.

Used recently/Potential limitations

• Based solely on pitch counts and usage, the Giants appear to be at full strength in the bullpen for the opener.

Quick takeaway:

• The Giants bullpen has struggled this season, but they have everyone available to right the ship in the series opener.

What to Watch Today

• Adrian Houser has been much worse against lefties than righties this season, so it could potentially be a soft landing for Drake Baldwin’s return to the lineup.

  • vs RHH: 3.86 ERA, .212/.238/.343 allowed

  • vs LHH: 6.81 ERA, .335/.418/.604 allowed

• Grant Holmes has struggled this season with the second time through the order, allowing opposing hitters to put up an absurd .317/.391/.663 line. Can he figure out a Giants lineup that doesn’t have a very pronounced improvement from the 1st to 2nd times through?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8 runs). Can Atlanta’s lefties give Grant Holmes a lead, and can he hold it when the lineup turns over?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Michael Harris II is under team control through the 2033 season, but his first-half struggles last year started to cause fans to question just how secure his spot was. Ronald Acuña Jr. is a superstar, but injuries have consistently limited his playing time, and he is only under team control through 2028. Jurickson Profar was brought in to secure left field for three years, but has been suspended in back-to-back seasons and will have appeared in fewer than a quarter of Atlanta’s games through the first two seasons of his contract.

Down on the farm, Diego Tornes was really the only outfield prospect with any sort of serious hype, signing for $2.5 million and ranked the 15th best international prospect in his class. The issue, however, is that he was still just 16/17 years old and is a long way away from Atlanta.

Fast forward to today, and the picture looks much different. Conor Essenburg was an over-slot prep selection in the 2025 MLB Draft who has serious pop. Michael Martinez has done nothing but hit after being a $155k IFA signee a few years back. Luis Guanipa, Owen Carey, and others have shown promise as well.

But three in particular have begun to carve out realistic paths to becoming future contributors in Atlanta’s outfield: Eric Hartman, Isaiah Drake, and Logan Braunschweig.

The encouraging part for Atlanta is that these prospects are not all the same type of player. Hartman offers the upside of an everyday corner outfielder with impact power and speed. Drake brings premium athleticism and center field defense. Braunschweig has quickly emerged as one of the better values from the organization’s recent draft classes.

They are at different stages of development and carry different risk profiles, but together they represent something the Braves system lacked not long ago: legitimate outfield depth with multiple paths to the major leagues.

(*all stats and rankings as of 6/15/26)

Eric Hartman

One of the hottest prospects in all of baseball is current Rome Braves outfielder Eric Hartman.

Hailing from the Canadian province of Alberta, Hartman was taken in the 20th round of the draft and signed for $340,000 over slot to forgo his college commitment to Michigan. It’s an incredibly uncommon origin story.

Transitioning from the Canadian prep scene to professional baseball gave him some lumps, as in six games at the complex last year, he recorded just two hits, walking five times and striking out seven times across 27 plate appearances. Still, he got to experience 83 games in Single-A Augusta, where Hartman began to adjust to the competition. He would bat .248 with a .718 OPS, but despite just five home runs, he showed off his 70-grade speed with 44 stolen bases.

And then 2026 began.

Still just 19 years old, Hartman opened the season in High-A Rome and has blossomed into one of the most dangerous hitters at the level.

Hartman and last year’s first-round selection, Tate Southisene, have been the top two hitters in the Braves farm system and two of the top hitters in the minor leagues for players under 21 years old. He consistently is able to produce EVs over 100 mph as the ball pops off his bat.

What makes Hartman’s breakout especially intriguing is that it is not being driven by one tool. The speed was already well known, but the quality of contact has taken a significant step forward. When a player with his athleticism begins producing consistent impact off the bat, the ceiling starts to look much different.

That combination is a big reason why evaluators have become increasingly aggressive with his ranking over the past year.

It is hard to imagine Hartman not eventually reaching Double-A this season, which is impressive for just a second-year prospect who will turn 20 years old in a few days.

After seeing the likes of John Gil and Alex Lodise getting invited to major league Spring Training last year, I would expect Hartman to get a legitimate non-roster invite to camp next year. 2027 is a tad aggressive for an actual call-up, but sometime in 2028 seems perfectly in range. Especially as both Jurickson Profar and Mike Yastrzemski may both be gone.

When asked about Hartman’s chances of making the Opening Day roster in 2027, Baseball America’s JJ Cooper stated:

“A year ago the answer would have seemed to be no. Now the question is whether Eric Hartman will be ready by then. Opening Day 2027 seems a little fast, but mid-season 2027 seems very plausible.”

He has been vaulted into Top 100 lists across many outlets, including Baseball America (62) and Just Baseball (32). Not too shabby for the 611th overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft.

Isaiah Drake

A teammate of Hartman’s with the Rome Emperors, Isaiah Drake seems like he has been a prospect in the Braves system forever. He was drafted in the fifth round of the 2023 MLB Draft for an over-slot bonus of $750k to sign him away from his Georgia Tech commitment out of North Atlanta High School. And yes, he is the little brother of NFL running back Kenyan Drake.

At just 17 years old, Drake entered the complex directly after being drafted and recorded just 15 hits (13 singles and 2 triples) across 77 plate appearances, but struck out at a 37.7% clip. He split time between the complex and Augusta in 2024, but struggled mightily.

It was his age-19 season in 2025 that Isaiah Drake really started to put it together. He was already a plus fielder with 70-grade speed, but the bat just had not shown up. However, after batting .260 with a .704 OPS and cutting his strikeout rate to 22.5% in 84 games in Single-A, he was promoted to High-A for his final 32 appearances of the season. Drake would go on to bat over .300 during this stint and steal a combined 46 bags across the two levels.

This earned him the starting center field and leadoff job with Rome to begin the 2026 season. In 56 games during his age-20 season, Drake is batting .254 with a career-best .426 slugging percentage and .762 OPS He’s slugged 10 home runs already, notable as he entered the season with just 16 for his career.

The power increase has been key to Drake’s success. For a long time, the question surrounding Drake was whether he would hit enough to allow his athleticism to play at higher levels. Few prospects in the organization can match his speed, and his defensive ability has never been in doubt. The emergence of even average game power changes the conversation.

If Drake can continue making enough contact while maintaining that newfound pop, his profile starts to resemble something more than a speed-and-defense reserve. That is what makes this season so important for his long-term outlook.

He is still striking out a tad higher than I would like (27.0%), but seeing him grow into some power to pair with his double-plus speed is very encouraging. He’s finally lifting the ball the most in his career (43.8%), allowing him to generate real impact with the bat.

With Harris II locked into the center field position for years to come, Drake will need to continue to progress with the bat to carve out a role in Atlanta’s outfield. The defense is there, the speed is legit, the bat is improving, and the power has finally come around.

Logan Braunschweig

The final outfielder on this list is likely the least known of the trio. In college, Logan Braunschweig maintained a career .306 batting average, .834 OPS, and racked up 210 hits. Power was never the name of his game, however, slugging just 10 home runs during his time at UAB.

Still, Atlanta took notice and drafted him in the 9th round of the 2025 MLB Draft, a senior signee taking just $2,500.

He was immediately sent to High-A Rome as a senior college bat, and quickly showed that he could compete at that level. Braunschweig batted .294 in his 26 games at the professional level. This year, he spent the first 39 games of the season back in Rome and batted .277, including a .798 OPS and three home runs. He was promptly promoted to Double-A Columbus.

Through 14 games at the Double-A level, Braunschweig has been adjusting decently well. He is batting .273 with a .637 OPS, but is striking out at a 27.1% rate. He does have 10 hits, however, including two doubles.

The key when talking about Logan Braunschweig is the value. As a money-saving senior sign who received just a $2,500 bonus, most teams really do not get much value out of those profiles. Even if he just ends up as a fourth outfielder, that is insane value for that draft selection.

Braunschweig will need to continue to develop and show that he can handle Double-A pitchers before getting the chance to show himself at a higher level. If he does, however, I would expect him to get some looks during Spring Training and in Gwinnett next season.

Hartman looks like a potential everyday player. Drake has begun translating his elite athleticism into production. Braunschweig has already exceeded expectations for a low-cost senior sign.

None are guarantees, but compared to where the organization stood a year ago, Atlanta suddenly has multiple outfield prospects worth monitoring. For an organization that once appeared thin behind its major-league outfield, that’s a significant development.

For Atlanta Braves fans, that’s exactly what they’re hoping for this week.

Spencer Strider is headed to Dallas for an evaluation with Dr. Keith Meister, the orthopedic surgeon who performed his internal brace procedure in 2024 and has become the Braves’ trusted specialist for elbow injuries. The visit comes after Strider’s fastball velocity suddenly cratered against the Mets, leading to an injured list stint and immediate concern about the health of Atlanta’s ace.

Now the Braves wait.

And while everyone awaits answers from Dr. Meister, Atlanta has an uncomfortable question to consider:

What happens if Spencer Strider misses significant time?

Let’s talk about it.

Surgery’s not a guarantee…yet

Let’s clear something up - while it’s not a good thing that Strider is flying to Dallas to see Dr. Meister, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the righthander will need season-ending surgery.

Let’s rewind back to 2024. Reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. tweaked his right knee, the same one that he tore the ACL in back in 2021.

And so, after being evaluated by team doctors, Ronald did what many recent surgery patients do - got a second opinion from the person who knew the knee best: Dr. Neil El Attrache in Los Angeles, who completed the ACL repair in 2021.

Dr. El Attrache confirmed Atlanta’s diagnosis, that there was inflammation present around the meniscus, but that he was in no danger of long-term damage and would be ready for Opening Day. And Ronald was, being in the lineup on Opening Day and playing through late May until tearing the other ACL in a rundown against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It’s entirely possible that Atlanta’s doctors feel like the UCL escaped major damage from the MRI, but want the surgeon who has most recently seen the ligament to confirm.

Unlikely, I’d argue, but possible.

And similarly unlikely is Strider’s return to the majors if he does, in fact, need another UCL reconstruction.

Coming back from a 2nd Tommy John surgery, which is commonly referred to as a “revision”, is already rare, and the Braves have examples on both sides. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, who both debuted in the late 2000s for Atlanta, both had a second procedure just a few years after their first and were never the same, eventually retiring just three (Medlen) and two (Beachy) years later.

There are success stories, including starters like Jacob DeGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and Nathan Eovaldi, as well as former Braves reliever Peter Moylan.

But when you add a third procedure in the mix, it becomes a lot less likely. The only two notable success stories in MLB are Jonny Venters and Tejay Antone, who both needed a third procedure soon after their second but eventually made a return to the majors.

The difference for Strider is, unfortunately, the order - there’s not a single instance in Jon Rogele’s Tommy John surgery database of a pitcher having three elbow surgeries and the second being the internal brace instead of a standard Tommy John.

In standard Tommy John surgery, a tendon graft is taken from the patient’s forearm or hamstring (or occasionally, a cadaver) and woven through ‘tunnels’ that are drilled through the patient’s upper and lower arm bones. The actual UCL is minuscule, roughly 1.5 to 3.0 centimeters in length and 4 to 7 millimeters in width. The much larger tendon graft is woven through the tunnels and secured to the surface of the bone to recreate the stability of the now-torn UCL, providing more surface area and material to transfer the stresses generated by pitching.

But the internal brace is different. Created by Arthrex, the InternalBrace™ is designed to augment a primary repair/reconstruction by providing an artificial structure in the elbow that anchors soft-tissue-to-bone (instead of the standard bone-to-bone of a conventional Tommy John repair). It allows for a quicker return to play because there’s an artificial structure remaining in the elbow that can help take the stresses that would normally only be on the UCL.

Strider is one of the only pitchers I can find who would be getting standard Tommy John surgery after receiving an internal brace, if that’s the direction that Dr. Meister eventually takes the righty. Complete uncharted territory.

The immediate replacement in the rotation

The Braves brought prospect JR Ritchie back up to the majors early last week, designating him for bullpen work. He, coincidentally, entered the game on Friday night after Strider left and pitched the final five innings.

Manager Walt Weiss indicated over the weekend that Ritchie will slide right into Strider’s spot in the rotation, given that he’s already stretched out from remaining in a starting role for Triple-A Gwinnett after being optioned down in mid-May.

The question will be his effectiveness in the rotation - Ritchie’s struggled to miss bats in his brief MLB tenure, sitting at a 28th percentile 22.2% in whiff rate, and wasn’t much better on Friday at just 24% (8 of 22 swings). In another concerning trend, New York’s average exit velocity on their batted balls was 94.8 mph, perilously close to averaging a hard-hit ball.

This will set up Atlanta’s rotation to look like this going forward, projecting roles for each starter based on effectiveness this season:

Chris Sale
Bryce Elder
Martín Pérez
Grant Holmes
JR Ritchie

And after the results of this weekend, where Pérez allowed one run in 5.1 innings, followed by Elder being tagged for six runs in just four innings, several are suggesting flipping the two in the rotation’s “Tree of Trust”.

But with the questions about everyone outside of Sale - the sustainability of Elder and Pérez amid underwhelming Stuff, Holmes’ documented issues with the second time through the order, and Ritchie’s struggles with walks and missing bats - it’s clear the Braves will need more rotation reinforcements for the rest of the season.

There are options in Gwinnett

The Braves have two prominent rotation options in Gwinnett, both in different stages of their development.

Hurston Waldrep has officially returned from his ‘loose bodies’ elbow surgery, completing a four-inning rehab start for Double-A Columbus last week and then being activated and optioned to Gwinnett.

Waldrep was electric down the stretch last season, owing to his embrace of the multiple-fastball approach, putting up a 2.88 ERA across 56.1 innings with 55 strikeouts and only three homers allowed.

He’s clearly not ready for a regular role, with his third and final rehab start being only four innings and all of his damage allowed being in that final frame, but he projects to finish his ‘spring training’ after a few outings and could be ready to return to the majors at that time.

The other option is prospect Owen Murphy, who has yet to be added to the 40-man roster. That fact will likely keep him in the minors for a bit longer, but the youngster has traits that make him potentially able to succeed in the majors almost immediately, most notably his fastball.

The four-seamer averages ‘only’ 92.3 mph so far in AAA, but with an absurd 18.5 inches of induced vertical break that has him among the league’s elite for starting pitchers.

He’s coming off of his most dominant start for Gwinnett, allowing just one earned run on three hits across six innings with a season-high ten strikeouts. Carrying a six-pitch mix, including all three fastballs, both a slider and a curveball, as well as an offspeed in the changeup, he’s similarly equipped to immediately survive at the major league level owing to the polish and outlier characteristics of the four-seamer.

A 40-man roster move would be required to add Murphy, but if Strider is expected to miss the remainder of the season after elbow surgery, moving him to the 60-day injured list would only be a formality.

Other promotions out of Gwinnett could eventually include RHPs Garrett Baumann and Victor Mederos (already on the 40-man), as well as MLB veteran starters Austin Gomber, Elieser Hernández, and Carlos Carrasco (once he re-signs a new minor league deal).

Injured starters AJ Smith-Shawver, who is starting rehab soon, and Spencer Schwellenbach, who has begun a throwing program, would be nice additions in the second half but likely can’t be counted on for meaningful innings due to their uncertain status as they return from injury.

Outside trade targets

I’ve previously argued in this space that the Braves need to aggressively target a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm via trade this summer, identifying Jacob deGrom as my top target. While the need for someone to slot in behind Chris Sale in a postseason rotation still exists, from the outside, it feels like the threshold for a rotation addition might be a bit lower.

(That being said, it also felt that way during spring training, and the Braves stood pat.)

Someone who can reliably take the ball every fifth day as a mid-rotation starter would theoretically be a welcome fit for Atlanta, and a new name we’d previously suggested has been getting a lot of traction recently: Logan Webb.

The San Francisco Giants righty just returned from the injured list two weeks ago from a knee issue and has been electric since being activated: two earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched, including outings of seven (scoreless) innings and eight innings (with one run allowed) his last two times out.

Webb also has a history of reliably posting. He’s pitched 190 innings or more in each of the last four, including three consecutive years of league-leading 200+ inning counts. He finished that four-year stretch with an ERA+ of 124, so it wasn’t empty innings, either.

He has two additional years of team control after this season, costing $23M and $24M, as well as a one-time trade assignment bonus of $1M. Most notably, he does not have either a given no-trade clause or an earned one (through 10-5 rights).

Other controllable options include Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins and Michael Wacha of the Kansas City Royals.

The Bigger Problem

The uncomfortable reality for Atlanta is that this conversation existed before Strider’s injury scare.

The Braves entered the season expecting Spencer Strider to return from elbow surgery and immediately reclaim his place atop the rotation. They expected Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep to emerge as long-term fixtures. They expected Chris Sale to continue pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

Only one of those assumptions currently looks secure.

Sale has been magnificent, but every other member of Atlanta’s projected postseason rotation either is injured, returning from injury, or carrying significant question marks.

That’s what makes the coming days so important.

If Dr. Meister delivers good news and Strider returns after a relatively short absence, the Braves still need rotation help. The urgency simply becomes less severe.

If the news is worse, Atlanta’s deadline calculus changes entirely.

The conversation is no longer about finding another frontline starter to pair with Sale.

It’s about rebuilding an entire playoff rotation.

That reality is why Alex Anthopoulos and his staff hopefully have multiple contingency plans already in motion, evaluating trade targets, monitoring internal options, and preparing for outcomes that range from a minor setback to a potentially career-altering injury.

I hope.

Because until Dr. Meister provides answers, nobody really knows what comes next.

The best outcome for Atlanta is that this entire discussion becomes irrelevant by next week.

But until then, the Braves are waiting.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

It came early in this one, as it was the second inning.

Both teams loaded the bases, but the results were drastically different.

Atlanta picked up two early runs and then loaded the bases with no outs… but couldn’t add on, as Austin Wynns (strikeout) and Mauricio Dubón (popout) picked up two quick outs despite not a single one of the nine combined pitches they saw being in the strike zone.

Seriously - Wynns swung at four pitches off the plate, striking out, while Dubón got up 3-0, bailed out of the box on an autotake strike (that was actually inside and that he could have challenged, and then weakly popped out when he got jammed on a heater.

Michael Harris then struck out looking to end the frame. The Braves tied the game at two, but they hung 42 pitches on Mets starter Nolan McLean but couldn’t deliver the killing blow.

And then in the bottom half, the Mets loaded the bases with two strikes, getting a double, an infield single, and a hit-by-pitch.

The difference here is that, while the Braves recorded three outs without getting a ball out of the infield and striking out twice, the Mets hit a grand slam. Bo Bichette turned on an elevated four-seamer for his second home run of the game, adding on to the solo shot he hit in the first inning.

It was 6-2 at that point and the rout was on. The Braves wouldn’t threaten from that point on, adding only a solo shot (and that came after the Mets pushed the lead to five runs.)

Today’s Player of the Game

With all due respect to Matt Olson, who hit his 20th home run of the season tonight, I’m giving it to JR Ritchie.

The prospect was optioned down to Gwinnett with some command issues and took a while to iron them out with the Stripers. But after his most recent start, which saw him pitch six innings with two runs and four strikeouts, but no walks, he was called up earlier this week to reinforce a bullpen that lost Carlos Carrasco to the DFA monster.

He was called on tonight with a runner on first and no outs in the fourth, and was able to finish the game for the Braves, saving the bullpen for another day. Ritchie covered the final five innings in 73 pitches, allowing two hits and walking two while striking out five.

Per Braves broadcaster CJ Nitkowski, Ritchie is the first Braves pitcher to throw five innings out of the pen without an earned run since Cristhian Martinez did it in 2011.

There are a few ways this can play out - either the Braves keep him wth the major league club and use him as the replacement for Strider, or they try to buy an extra reliever for a few days by sending Ritchie down tomorrow and then making him the corresponding move for a Strider IL placement on Tuesday. (IL placement can be backdated up to three days, so the Braves could carry an extra reliever in Ritchie’s spot for the rest of this series and then bring Ritchie back as an injury replacement for Strider on Tuesday, letting him start against the Giants at home next week).

While he didn’t get a lot of whiffs (eight in 33 swings) and the contact against him averaged 94.8 mph, it’s still progress and he’s likely to get another opportunity to start in the majors as soon as next week.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The injury to Spencer Strider.

Having already been tagged for six runs in his first three innings, Strider walked the leadoff hitter of the 4th inning. That was the last batter he faced, perhaps for a while.

Manager Walt Weiss and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner came out to visit with him, accompanied by head athletic trainer George Poulis. Strider’s three fastballs he threw to Melendez were all below 90 mph, with the last being just 87.8 mph, and Strider was removed from the game.

The official word from the Braves two innings later was “right arm soreness”, a worryingly vague diagnosis that lends the impression that there’s more going on than just some brief mechanical issues. After the game, Walt Weiss said that Spencer felt soreness in both his arm and shoulder and would get an MRI tomorrow.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to even up the series tomorrow, with veteran Martín Pérez (4-3, 3.02) on the mound. The Mets have yet to announce their starter or if they plan to use an opener ahead of a bulk pitcher instead.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY

• TV: Apple TV (exclusive)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Austin Wynns

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with a pretty standard lineup here, but this specific combination makes for 55 different lineup combos this season. In a sign of how injured the roster’s been, the most common lineup has been used only five times.

New York Mets Lineup

RF Carson Benge
SS Bo Bichette
LF Juan Soto
1B Jacob Young
CF AJ Ewing
2B Marcus Semien
3B Brett Baty
DH MJ Melendez
C Luis Torrens

Quick thoughts:

• Pretty standard lineup for New York, minus newly reinstated catcher Francisco Alvarez’s off day; the Mets are trying to not push the surgically repaired meniscus too hard.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.00 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 4.46 FIP

• 29.1% K / 12.8% BB / 16.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 20% slider, 20% curveball, 17% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 37% slider, 6% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Five different Mets starters have had no success off of Strider across 3-5 at-bats, but there are two interesting names here that have diverged. Juan Soto’s hitting .231 in 13 ABs, with no homers or RBI, while utilityman Brett Baty is 3-8 with three RBI in his career off of Strider.

Opposing Starter: RHP Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.98 ERA / 3.36 xERA / 3.72 FIP

• 27.4 K% / 9.0 BB% / 18.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (35%, 95.0 mph)

• Sweeper (18%, 84.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (17%, 96.2 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 81.5 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 91.6 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 88.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Fastball-oriented six-pitch mix that focuses on sinker/four-seamer early, ramps up sinker & cutter when behind, and curveball/changeup when ahead.

vs RHH: Sinker/sweeper oriented mix that cuts sinkers for curveballs when ahead and with two strikes and cuts back on sweepers for more cutters and sinkers when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• In a sign of how injured the Braves have been and how much they’re relying on depth right now, only three members of the roster faced McLean when he made his second career MLB start against Atlanta last year.

  • Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson were all 0-3 off of McLean, while new addition Rowdy Tellez is 2-3 with a hard-hit line drive single and a strikeout.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Given the surprise Thursday off-day, most of the entire pen should be available for Atlanta.

Used recently/potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd threw 31 pitches on Tuesday, but with two days off, he should be good to go for tonight’s opener.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Mets throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Huascar Brazoban is fresh, having not pitched since Sunday.

Used recently

• Everyone else. All of the leverage arms got into Thursday’s win against the Cardinals, although several of them (A.J. Minter, Like Weaver, Devin Williams) threw fewer than 20 pitches and likely come back today.

Potential limitations

• David Peterson, as the 5th starter/longman, is down for today after being the bulk pitcher and throwing 63 pitches on Wednesday. Austin Warren, who threw 33 on Wednesday, is a question.

Quick takeaway:

• The Mets can bring back any of their leverage arms tonight, if needed, but they might then be short that guy at least Saturday, if not the rest of the series.

What to Watch Today

• Can Atlanta find more success off of McLean than the first time they faced him last fall? In his second career start, McLean went seven innings of two-run ball, giving up four hits (including a homer to Ronald Acuña Jr.) in a 12-7 Mets win.

• Spencer Strider’s looking to exorcize some demons in Citi Field tonight. Last August, he had a career-worst start of eight runs allowed on eight hits (including three homers) with two walks and two strikeouts in just four innings.

Final Thought

The Mets are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8 runs). It feels like the first offense that can hang a crooked number on the opposing starter will take this one.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Let’s Talk About It Two: Electric Boogaloo

If you’ve got 20 minutes, I sat down with Apple TV’s Heidi Watney to preview this specific matchup and get some overarching thoughts on the two teams.

Programming Note

I’m attending a wedding out of state this weekend, so there likely won't be a scouting report or game recap on Saturday or Sunday.

That’s usually how it works. The first-round pick gets the biggest bonus, carries the highest expectations, and becomes the face of the draft class.

And don’t get me wrong, Tate Southisene’s taken a leap in his first full season with Atlanta. He’s hitting .296/.429/.498 in his 54 games played, all but three of which came for Single-A Augusta. He has eight home runs and 37 stolen bases, putting up a 155 wRC+ that is the best mark of any player with one of Atlanta’s full-season affiliates.

But no, the biggest bonus actually went to 4th-round lefty Briggs McKenzie, who got paid $3M on a slot value of just $588,900. And all he’s done since getting started in full-season ball is force the Braves to push him up to High-A after one single start in Augusta.

Not as a reward, but because he needed to develop.

Let’s talk about it.

Why this promotion was different

When the Braves promoted MacKenzie to Rome, the reaction was predictable.

The 2025 fourth-round pick had struck out eight batters in five innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. The numbers were dominant, and the promotion felt like a reward.

But according to Braves prospect analyst Gaurav Vedak, the promotion had less to do with the box score and more to do with the type of pitcher MacKenzie already appears to be.

The Braves weren’t promoting him because he dominated Low-A hitters.

They were promoting him because Low-A hitters may not have been helping him develop anymore.

For most teenage pitching prospects, Low-A is where the real work on being a professional begins. Prep pitchers tend to spend most of, if not their entire, first season in the lowest level of the minors, learning to handle the physical demands, focusing on throwing the secondary pitches for strikes, and acclimating to professional hitters. Even the fast-moving ones typically aren’t exempt from this; AJ Smith-Shawver spent the entirety of his 2022 season in Augusta at age 19, making 17 starts and covering 68.2 innings, despite eventually reaching Atlanta less than a year later.

The reason is that most prep pitchers, on the field, are working on some things that aren’t a big part of the high school and showcase experience: getting comfortable with their secondary pitches and learning to land everything for strikes.

What makes McKenzie different

McKenzie throws the usual four-seam fastball, pairing it with a changeup and a curveball. He’s dabbled in a two-seamer, which is a development point we’ll get to in a future newsletter, but he’s able to throw all three of those pitches for strikes already.

And when it comes to his ability to spin a baseball, he’s pretty advanced. Not for his age, for baseball.

Per Gaurav, McKenzie’s curveball has been measured at around 3,100 RPM. That’s not exceptional for a teenager. That’s exceptional period.

Charlie Morton’s best Braves seasons featured a curveball spinning in the same neighborhood. Former Braves starter Max Fried has only crossed the 3,100 RPM threshold a handful of times this year with his renowned curveball.

The spin rate isn’t what got McKenzie promoted, though.

What got him promoted is that he can already pair that curveball with a quality changeup, throw both pitches for strikes, and maintain his fastball velocity throughout an outing.

The Braves aren’t dealing with a teenager who has one remarkable pitch. They’re dealing with a teenager who already looks comfortable pitching.

The Braves need better information

For as much work as prep pitchers are doing in that first year in Low-A to adjust to the professional game, the hitters are doing the same. These are some of the youngest prospects that are stateside in an organization, and there are a lot of areas of baseball where they’re exceptionally raw.

Low-A hitters chase more, especially against spin, which they recognize less often. And when they do get lucky and get a mistake pitch, they’re not always doing damage against it.

That makes evaluation harder.

So the Braves moved McKenzie up to Rome, because a curveball that gets six whiffs in Augusta might get taken for a ball in Rome.

That’s useful information.

A changeup that dominates inexperienced hitters might need refinement against more advanced hitters.

That’s useful information.

The promotion wasn’t a reward for a dominant debut: It was a test.

The Braves aren't trying to find out whether Briggs MacKenzie can dominate Low-A hitters. They already think he can. They're trying to find out what happens when he faces hitters who won't cooperate.

SIDEBAR: Know how sometimes it feels like Braves prospects don’t get the attention they deserve from national media and prospect rankings? This is why. If Briggs McKenzie were to stay in Augusta all season and dominate the Carolina League the same way he did Delmarva in that first start, he’d be a no-doubt top 100 prospect by the end of the season. But would he be a better pitcher? That’s very much in doubt.

Why this matters for the system

Atlanta’s always been aggressive with their top prospects, moving them rapidly through the organization until they find the true test of their talent level and current state of development. Sometimes that ends up being Atlanta. Sometimes it’s lower.

What they’re doing with Briggs McKenzie is no different than what they did with AJ Smith-Shawver, or Spencer Schwellenbach, or Didier Fuentes.

They’re trying to get information on where to go with the development next.

This isn’t a declaration that MacKenzie is a future ace. It’s a declaration that the organization believes he’s ready for a harder challenge.

That’s significant after one professional start.

Briggs MacKenzie still has plenty to prove: One start doesn’t make a prospect, and one promotion doesn’t guarantee future success. But the Braves’ decision tells us something important.

They aren’t treating McKenzie like a pitcher who needs to survive Low-A.

They’re treating him like a pitcher whose next developmental questions can only be answered somewhere else.

Most teenage pitchers spend Low-A trying to prove they belong.

Briggs McKenzie may have already forced the Braves to start looking for the next question.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Thursday update: The weather’s been dreadful in Chicago, but the game has yet to be postponed. If it were, the best makeup day would be August 20th, a shared off-day for both teams. The Braves will be between series in Milwaukee and Minnesota, so traveling back for one isn’t the hardest thing to coordinate.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
DH Jorge Mateo
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy Leon

Quick thoughts:

• Against a lefty in Anthony Kay, the Braves go with Jorge Mateo as the designated hitter and possibly their best defensive outfield in Dubón-Harris-White.

Chicago White Sox Lineup

2B Chase Meidroth
DH Randal Grichuk
1B Miguel Vargas
3B Colson Montgomery
CF Everson Pereira
RF Braden Montgomery
C Edgar Quero
SS Luisangel Acuña
LF Sam Antonacci

Quick thoughts:

• Shortstop Colson Montgomery (back) checks into the lineup for the first time since Sunday, but is playing third base and batting cleanup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (4-3, 3.02)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.02 ERA / 4.06 xERA / 3.99 FIP

• 20.9% K / 8.9% BB / 12.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 52% sinker, 28% changeup, 10% cutter, 9% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 27% cutter, 20% sinker, 10% curveball, 9% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• Only three White Sox have faced their former teammate in an actual game, with Andrew Benintendi batting .286 with an RBI across 14 ABs and Randal Grichuk hitting .292 with two RBIs across 24 ABs. Miguel Vargas is 0-2.

Opposing Starter: LHP Anthony Kay (5-1, 4.40 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.40 ERA / 5.87 xERA / 5.49 FIP

• 16.5 K% / 9.3 BB% / 7.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (26%, 95.8 mph)

• Sweeper (20%, 82.5 mph)

• Sinker (19%, 94.9 mph)

• Cutter (18%, 91.0 mph)

• Changeup (14%, 85.9 mph)

• Slider (3%, 85.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Sinker/sweeper oriented mix that focuses on sinkers early and when behind, sweepers when ahead and with two strikes, and ramps up cutter usage when behind and four-seam usage with two strikes.

vs RHH: Very well-rounded six-pitch mix that focuses on four-seamer/changeup when ahead and with two strikes, cutting sweeper/sinker/cutter usage to do it, but focuses on throwing all three fastballs when behind in lieu of changeups.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Very small sample size for Atlanta off of Kay - only five Braves have ever faced him, with only Austin Wynns (1-5), Jorge Mateo (1-2, RBI) and Dominic Smith (1-1, homer) having hits off of the lefty.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez were both off yesterday and can pitch tonight if Atlanta gets a lead they need to hold.

Used recently:

• Dylan Lee pitched last night, but needed only three sliders to retire the one batter he faced and can come back tonight.

Potential limitations

• Dylan Dodd’s 31-pitch outing on Tuesday means he might be down today? Not sure how Weiss wants to handle that sort of workload, but with the rest of the pen available, this might be a ‘break glass in case of fifteen innings’ situation.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the White Sox throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Longman Trevor Richards is plenty fresh, having not pitched since Sunday.

Used recently

• Everyone else has appeared in this series, although Tyler Davis and Grant Taylor, both righties, should be fine to come back today without concern. So should lefty Brandon Eisert, Tuesday’s opener.

Potential limitations

• Leverage arm Seranthony Domínguez has pitched back-to-back, although at only 27 pitches, could potentially come back and appear in Game 3 if the White Sox have a chance to sweep.

Quick takeaway:

• Chicago has the guys they need to hold a late lead.

What to Watch Today

• Can Atlanta find runs against a kitchen sink lefty?

• If the wind’s blowing out, which is always possible in a place literally named “The Windy City” but double so with today’s weather, can Martín Pérez keep his mistakes in the ballpark?

  • Also, does an especially wet field make it tough for Pérez’s groundballs to be converted into outs? He already doesn’t give up hard contact, and these balls are even more prone to die and/or get slowed down in the infield grass.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can Atlanta find the offense to punish a struggling starter in Kay, and does the weather hold out enough for them to do it?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

It’s tough to narrow this one down, but the first inklings that something was off tonight came in the 2nd inning.

The Braves loaded the bases with one out, thanks to a Mauricio Dubón single, an Austin Riley HBP, and a scorcher to second from Mike Yasterzemski that Chicago had trouble converting into an out - Chase Meidroth laid out to knock it down, but he couldn’t get the ball out of his glove in time to either flip to second or throw to first for an out.

But from there, pain. Jorge Mateo, starting at shortstop with Dubón moonlighting as an outfielder for at least the next two weeks, struck out on three straight pitches, the last of which he got rung up on the check swing for a slider in the dirt. Austin Wynns then ripped a line drive to right, one with an expected batting average of .610, but prospect Braden Montgomery ran it down to erase the threat.

This sequence would somewhat repeat throughout the contest: first and third with two outs in the 3rd? Hard-hit flyout to right to end the inning. Runner on second in the 4th? Line drive for an out, which happened again with a runner on first to end the 5th, as well.

Today’s Player of the Game

Chris Sale, I guess?

Atlanta’s veteran ace covered 5.2 innings, being pulled with a runner on first and two outs in the sixth. Didier Fuentes, who came on to relieve Sale, completely missed that Jacob Gonzalez broke early on a steal attempt and hung himself out to dry, but catcher Austin Wynns threw behind the runner for the pickoff to end the inning.

Sale sat 97.6 with his four-seam fastball today, a full 1.9 mph over his season high, and touched 99.4 with the heater today. It’s the continuation of a recent trend that’s seen him ramp up the velocity early in the start before going back to it in his final inning when he ‘empties the tank’.

The extra velo worked for the heater, too - Sale finished with 9 whiffs on 22 swings against the four-seamer. But the extra velo did not help the slider, which got just four whiffs on 21 swings. Is that due to him facing more righties than usual tonight, or is the slider either in suboptimal locations or moving less at its higher velocity? It normally averages 79.2 mph but was at 81.2 tonight.

I’m not entirely sure, but even a merely ‘good’ Chris Sale was able to win Player of the Game on a night where no one else really earned the award.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s inability to reliably give Chris Sale run support.

It was another quiet night for the Braves offense, which scored only one run. Of the team’s seven hits, only one was for extra bases, a Jorge Mateo double. They went 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position (making them 2-16 in the series) and stranded ten batters on base.

In Sale’s five losses this season, the team has scored a combined six runs. His run support entering this game was officially 5.71 runs, but that counts two outings with nine offensive runs, plus 10 & 13-run games. We’re on the verge of making the Jacob deGrom jokes on this one.

To be fair, Atlanta’s batted ball profile was one that could have put up more runs than it did - Braves batters had 15 hard-hit balls and 10 of them were outs, including three line drive outs from catcher Austin Wynns and lineouts from Michael Harris II and Dom Smith, all of which had expected batting averages well north of .500.

That being said, Braves hitters absolutely did not help themselves tonight. In the ninth inning alone, after pinch hitter Eli White walked with one out to represent the tying run, both Harris and Ozzie Albies popped out to the infield after getting jammed on inside fastballs.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to not get swept on Thursday evening, with Martín Pérez (4-3, 3.02) getting the ball at 7:40 PM ET. The White Sox have yet to officially announce a starter.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Austin Wynns

Quick thoughts:

• With Ronald Acuña Jr. on the injured list for at least ten days (and potentially/likely for longer), Michael Harris II gets the first crack at leading off for the Braves.

Chicago White Sox Lineup

2B Chase Meidroth
DH Randal Grichuk
3B Miguel Vargas
C Edgar Quero
RF Braden Montgomery
LF Derek Hill
1B Jacob Gonzalez
SS Luisangel Acuña
CF Tristan Peters

Quick thoughts:

• Shortstop Colson Montgomery is missing another day with his balky back, while Randal Grichuk checks into the starting lineup against a lefty on the mound for Atlanta.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (8-4, 2.23)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.23 ERA / 3.33 xERA / 2.88 FIP

• 29.3% K / 6.5% BB / 22.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 31% sinker, 25% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 41% slider, 15% changeup, <1% sinker

Who to watch:

• Only two hitters on Chicago’s roster have faced Sale, which is wild to think about when you consider that he lost to them just two seasons ago. (Neither of those guys was on the roster that season, either)

  • Drew Romo is 0-3, while Randal Grichuk is hitting .222 with two homers and three RBI.

Opposing Starter: RHP Davis Martin (8-2, 2.61 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.61 ERA / 3.65 xERA / 2.45 FIP

• 25.3 K% / 5.9 BB% / 19.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (26%, 94.2 mph)

• Sinker (17%, 92.9 mph)

• Changeup (17%, 90.4 mph)

• Slider (15%, 87.3 mph)

• Cutter (13%, 89.5 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 82.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-rounded five-pitch mix that ramps up changeup usage when ahead and both cutters and sinkers usage when behind. No noteworthy utilization trend with two strikes.

vs RHH: Slider-dominant three-pitch mix that cuts sinker usage when ahead and with two strikes in favor of sliders and cuts both slider and four-seam usage in favor of sinkers when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Very small sample size for Atlanta off of Martin - only four Braves have ever faced him, with only Mike Yastrzemski (2-4) and Jorge Mateo (1-1, two-run homer) having hits off of the righty.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes were both intentionally down last night, per manager Walt Weiss, to give them an extended break after a week of heavy usage. Presumably, they’re back today.

Used recently:

• Robert Suarez (seven pitches) and Raisel Iglesias (24 pitches) both went yesterday but based solely on pitch counts, should be able to come back today if needed.

Potential limitations

• Dylan Dodd’s 31-pitch outing likely means he’s down for a day or so.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should have the backend pieces they need to seal a win…but then again, we thought that yesterday.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Lefty Sean Newcomb and the combo of Trevor Richards and Bryan Hudson all project to be fresh and available.

Used recently

• Three different relievers threw more than 20 pitches on Tuesday, and it’s possible they’re almost all available this evening if needed by Chicago.

Potential limitations

• The obvious exception here is Tyler Gilbert, who was placed on the injured list with a left shoulder impingement.

Quick takeaway:

• Chicago has the guys they need to hold a lead if they have one late.

What to Watch Today

• Can the Braves give Chris Sale some run support? It’s been easier said than done recently.

• How does Atlanta fare against a well-sequenced starter in Martin? That’s not been the easiest matchup for them this season, for whatever reason.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game (O/U 7 runs). Which offense can get to the opposing starter first?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

There were so many swings in this game - I mean, look at the Win Probability Chart.

But technically, the turning point was the entire 10th inning. Atlanta had a runner with decent speed on second base in the form of Ozzie Albies to open the frame, and it didn’t take long for the Braves to get him in.

Mauricio Dubón, befitting his status as the best clutch-hitting player on the roster, showed bunt but then slashed a first-pitch four-seamer down the right field line. Ozzie had to wait to make sure it cleared the glove of Jacob Gonzalez at first, but scored ahead of the throw home (which allowed Dubón to advance to second).

The problem is, Atlanta’s offense stopped there. Dominic Smith moved Dubón over with a groundout to first, but the Braves attempted the contact play with Austin Riley up to bat and Dubón was easily thrown out at home on the slow roller to third. Mike Yastrzemski’s shallow flyout ended the top half of the inning with only one run on the board, never a good thing when you’re the road team.

In the bottom half, despite the Braves asking closer Raisel Iglesias to pitch a second inning, Chicago found a way. Iglesias punched out Gonzalez before Chase Meidroth’s grounder to short allowed ‘Manfred Man’ Andrew Benintendi to advance to 3rd.

And then Braden Montgomery came to the plate.

The rookie, who was making his debut tonight, took a first-pitch changeup and then swung at the second, sending the ball corkscrewing down the left field line and into the bullpen for a walkoff two-run homer. It was an improbable walkoff winner - just 98.6 mph off the bat, it had an expected batting average of only .470 and would have been a home run in just two ballparks: Houston Daikon Park, where it would land in the Crawford Boxes, and this one.

Today’s Player of the Game

Matt Olson.

Atlanta’s veteran first baseman hit a first-inning two-run homer and added a solo shot in the third inning. Olson then almost had a third home run in his next at-bat, with only a robbery from Tristan Peters keeping the slugger from his first career three-homer game.

104.4 mph off the bat feels like it should always be a homer, unless you hit it to the deepest part of the ballpark.

Not deterred, Olson tried again in the 4th, hitting one to right field, but it was caught on the warning track after Olson just missed getting the full barrel on it.

After a brief slump in mid-May, Olson’s back to producing in the last two weeks with a .283/.333/.583 line and five homers across his last 15 games.

What You’ll Be Talking About, Part 1

Ronald Acuña Jr’s injury.

The former MVP left the game in the fourth inning after pulling up in his final few steps of attempting to beat out an infield grounder. He had a noticeable limp and was attempting to keep weight off of his left leg, immediately leaving the field of play without even stopping to be looked at by the training staff.

You can see the frustration Acuña has as he walks off the field.

The Braves announced that he had been removed with “left hamstring tightness”, a scary initial diagnosis when you consider this is the same hamstring that sent him to the injured list earlier this season.

After the game, Jesus Cańo of The Athletic talked to Ronald about the injury, with the outfielder admitting that this injury wasn’t as bad as last time but expressing frustration about the constant injuries. “I'm disappointed. I don't know how many injuries we need to pass in this sport, but it's part of the game.”

Manager Walt Weiss confirmed that Acuña is not automatically being placed on the injured list but rather will get imaging tomorrow and be further evaluated at that time, terming this a ‘day-to-day’ injury for now.

What You’ll Be Talking About 2: Electric Boogaloo

Atlanta’s pitching decisions tonight.

Sunday’s sweep-clinching win over the Pittsburgh Pirates got a bit hairy due to manager Walt Weiss giving Robert Suarez some extended time off - with how heavily the Braves have ridden their high-leverage arms, Weiss wanted to rest them a bit. Suarez received three days off, counting the off day, after pitching in three games over four days. Tonight was a similar situation, with Weiss confirming after the game that both Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes, who also made three appearances over four days, were unavailable tonight for extended rest.

So after Grant Holmes was pulled with the bases loaded and two outs in the fourth, with Dylan Dodd getting the final out and coming back out for a scoreless fifth, Weiss had to get creative.

Facing the bottom half of Chicago’s lineup, Weiss went to veteran Carlos Carrasco. Cookie hadn’t pitched in the majors since being added back on June 2nd, so Weiss decided to gamble. Carrasco got through the bottom of the order with only two singles allowed, being bailed out of a run scoring thanks to a great throw from Eli White in right field.

So Weiss doubled down and sent Carrasco back out for the seventh.

It didn’t go as well.

With the top of the order up, Carrasco surrendered a walk and two consecutive singles, scoring the game-tying run. Cookie ended up getting out of it, inducing a ground ball double play and then a lineout to end the frame, but not until he had picked up a blown save.

Folks will tell you that this loss is on Carrasco. They’re wrong.

Some will go a bit deeper and put the blame on Holmes, for continuing to change his sequencing for the second time through the order and needing to be pulled early.

But the truth is that it was, once again, the offense.

What You’ll Be Talking About 3: Revenge of the RISP

Atlanta’s offense picked up twelve hits tonight, including two homers and a double, but finished with just five runs.

Part of it was some bad BABIP luck on well-struck batted balls that didn’t fall for hits, including Olson’s near homer (xBA of .800), a Michael Harris II 111.8 mph lineout (xBA of .750), and three total outs on two hard-hit balls from Dominic Smith (103.6 mph) and Eli White (104.1 mph)

But a lot of it was either self-imposed errors or a lack of clutch hitting.

Austin Riley was picked off in the 8th inning, gifting the struggling Seranthony Domínguez an out when he was unable to throw a strike. (Of his eleven pitches in the inning, exactly TWO were in the strike zone).

Another easy out for Dominguez came from Mike Yastrzemski, when he chased a 2-0 fastball that was below the zone for a lazy flyball out.

All told, the Braves went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position, with their only hit in those situations coming in extras by Dubón. They stranded ten runners on base, just refusing to cash in their opportunities. They got runners on 1st and 2nd in the first inning after Olson’s homer and not only didn’t bring either of them in, failed to even advance them up 90 feet. Runners on 1st and 2nd in the 3rd, after a run already came in on a fielder’s choice? Strikeout looking to end the inning. Runners on first and third, one out in the 6th? An out in a rundown after Mike Yastrzemski broke for the plate on hard contact to first and was hung out to dry. Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the 7th? Pop fly, double play, and the inning’s over.

Sure, Cookie gave up a run in the seventh and Walt Weiss took a lot of the blame for running him back out there for a 2nd inning. But if the offense can get one more hit in these leverage situations, the Braves still have a narrow lead when they decide to go to the leverage arms in Robert Suarez for the 8th and Raisel Iglesias for the 9th.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to even up the series tomorrow night at 7:40 PM. Chris Sale (8-4, 2.23 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta, while Chicago has yet to announce their rotation plans for game two of the series.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Austin Wynns

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II makes his return to the lineup after sitting out two games for back tightness he experienced last Friday

Chicago White Sox Lineup

LF Sam Antonacci
3B Miguel Vargas
DH Andrew Benintendi
1B Jacob Gonzalez
2B Chase Meidroth
RF Braden Montgomery
CF Tristan Peters
SS Luisangel Acuña
C Drew Romo

Quick thoughts:

• Braden Montgomery is making his MLB debut today, batting 6th and in right field. Shortstop Colson Montgomery is getting another day off for a tight back but is expected to be back in the lineup as soon as Wednesday.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-2, 3.86)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.86 ERA / 4.49 xERA / 5.11 FIP

• 21.2% K / 10.0% BB / 11.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% slider, 35% four-seamer, 10% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup

• vs RHH: 47% slider, 31% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% cutter, 2% each curveball & changeup

Who to watch:

• There are a grand total of three at-bats off of Holmes on Chicago’s roster, with Luisangel Acuña being 0-2 and Randal Grichuk (who isn’t in this lineup) being 0-1.

• For recent performers, both Sam Antonacci and Chase Meidroth are hitting over .300 across the last two weeks, combining for 17 runs and 13 RBI.

Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Erick Fedde (1-5, 4.94 ERA)

(After the livestream, Chicago announced they were going with opener Brandon Eisert, a lefty)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.94 ERA / 4.51 xERA / 6.11 FIP

• 14.2 K% / 9.4 BB% / 4.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sweeper (38%, 81.6 mph)

• Sinker (28%, 93.7 mph)

• Cutter (20%, 90.0 mph)

• Changeup (13%, 88.7 mph)

• Four-seamer (2%, 94.1 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-rounded four-pitch mix that ramps up changeup usage when ahead, sinker usage when behind, and sweepers with two strikes.

vs RHH: Sweeper-dominant three-pitch mix that cuts sinker usage when behind in favor of cutters and cuts cutters when ahead and with two strikes in favor of sweepers.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• I am very excited for Ronald Acuña Jr. to see former teammate Erick Fedde tonight - Ronald’s hitting .316 with a 1.277 OPS and three homers/six RBI in just 19 ABs off of Fedde.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• With the off day on Monday, it’s likely that the entire bullpen is available to pitch tonight.

Used recently/Potential limitations:

• The only questions I would have are on Tyler Kinley and Reynaldo López. Kinley got Monday off, but is still at a 42-pitch count for the last three days. Does he get an additional day? The same question is there for López, who threw 27 pitches on Sunday and might benefit from one more day to rest the arm and surgically repaired shoulder.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be good with all the pieces they need to seal a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Seranthony Domínguez hasn’t pitched since before the weekend. Lefty Sean Newcomb should be back after his 29 pitches on Saturday, as well.

Used recently

• Three different relievers threw more than 20 pitches on Sunday, and that’s after they all threw on Friday night as well. Not sure how Chicago will handle the trio tonight.

Potential limitations

• Based on pitch counts and usage, it doesn’t appear that anyone needs to be down today for the White Sox.

Quick takeaway:

• Chicago has the guys they need to hold a lead if they have one late.

What to Watch Today

• Both Fedde and Holmes have struggled this season with the second time through the order, so good thing that both bullpens are rested - one of these teams might be going to it early.

• Fedde’s first inning has been a problem at times this season - he’s allowing a .294/.294/.824 line with no walks, but six homers and eight runs scored, so know that he’s likely not going to be throwing you balls and plan accordingly.

Final Thought

The Braves are comfortably favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game (O/U 9.5 runs). Can Atlanta get past this surprisingly competent White Sox offense and start the series with a win?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

A bases-loaded single in the fifth inning of a ten-run game counts as a hit with runners in scoring position. So does a game-tying single in the ninth inning.

Those aren’t the same thing.

Getting a hit with runners in scoring position is important, but RISP statistics don’t actually measure a player’s ability to perform in the biggest moments. They measure his ability to convert opportunities with runners on second or third base.

High-leverage statistics, meanwhile, are designed to measure performance when the outcome of the game hangs most heavily in the balance.

Sometimes those situations overlap. Often they don’t.

So before we decide which Braves hitters have been clutch this season, we need to answer a more fundamental question:

What exactly are we measuring? Let’s talk about it.

RISP Merchant vs Clutch Hitter

Let’s define some terms.

Not for runners in scoring position - we all know by now that it’s when there’s a runner on either second or third base (or both).

No, let’s talk about leverage.

FanGraphs has defined leverage based on how any particular situation changes a game’s win expectancy for the two teams. There’s more math than that, with the Leverage Index incorporating probabilities of both each potential outcome and the average potential swing in win expectancy, but you get the idea here. Average is an LI of 1.0.

The three buckets come out to this:

High Leverage: 2.0+
Medium Leverage: 0.85-2.0
Low Leverage: 0-0.85

A side note here is that the frequency of these events isn’t an even distribution - roughly 60% of all game situations are low leverage, while only about 10% are truly high leverage. The frequency with which each player faces a high-leverage situation also isn’t evenly distributed - backend relievers and pinch hitters face them the most, with lineup regulars and starting pitchers seeing them less often.

Someone who is good with runners in scoring position can rack up huge stats without paying attention to the inning or score - you can have an at-bat with RISP despite the game being solidly in hand, but it doesn’t necessarily mean you were good when it mattered.

At the same time, a clutch hitter, by definition, performs when the outcome is still up in the air: Late innings, tie games, extra innings, game-changing moments. It’s clearly more important because of the impact of that performance - it’s guaranteed to matter, by definition, where RISP at-bats are implied to be important but aren’t guaranteed to be.

So with that being said, let’s look at the four different buckets a player can be binned into, using wRC+ to sort them.

Bucket 1: The Real Clutch Hitters

These are the guys delivering regardless of game context, as they’ve excelled in both high-leverage and with runners in scoring position.

The poster child for this on Atlanta’s roster is Mauricio Dubón, who has discussed shortening his swing and aiming to put the ball in play the opposite way. The utilityman has succeeded more often than not, putting up an 183 wRC+ with 31 RBI in 59 PAs with RISP and a 240 wRC+ with 18 RBI in his 27 high-leverage PAs.

Other Braves who have excelled in both situations include Drake Baldwin (156 wRC+ w/ RISP, 149 wRC+ in high leverage) and Ozzie Albies (147 wRC+/150 wRC+), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (132 wRC+/144 wRC+).

There are a few who are better than average in both, but with a significant discrepancy between the two scores. Dom Smith is a great example here: he has a 172 wRC+w/ RISP, but ‘only’ an 111 wRC+ in high leverage, while Mike Yastrzemski is the opposite, putting up a 115 wRC+ with RISP but a 129 wRC+ in high leverage.

Bucket 2: The RISP Merchants

Good with RISP, but not actually good in clutch moments. The guys whose RBI totals make them look clutch even though the leverage numbers disagree.

The two guys here are both fan favorites, although one of them has fallen out of favor with his recent struggles. Austin Riley has a 126 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, having driven in 30 with three home runs in his 75 PAs. But when the game’s been on the line, 31 PAs classified as high leverage, he has only an 87 wRC+. Riley’s clearly being aggressive at the plate in an attempt to come through when the team needs it, with an on-base of only .290 and a 6.5% walk rate, but his .259 average and .697 OPS showcase his struggles.

The other is Eli White, although he’s suffering from a much smaller sample size. His 164 wRC+ in 22 PAs with runners in scoring position creates the illusion that he’s been a clutch hitter, but he’s put up only a 73 wRC+ in high-leverage moments. The problem, however, is he’s only had nine high-leverage PAs, as he’s usually a pinch-hit candidate in those situations.

Bucket 3: The Firefighters

These are probably the most misunderstood hitters on a roster.

Fans naturally remember RBI opportunities because they’re easy to spot. Runner on second, base hit, run scores. But high-leverage situations aren’t always accompanied by runners in scoring position. A tie game in the eighth inning with nobody on is often more important than a bases-loaded at-bat in a blowout.

That’s what makes this group so fascinating. These hitters may not always capitalize on traditional RBI opportunities, but when the outcome of the game hangs in the balance, they tend to find a way to contribute.

Matt Olson’s the poster child of this here. ‘Oly’ is pretty much a league-average hitter in any given RISP situation, putting up a 98 wRC+ in his 77 chances with two homers and 25 RBI.

But when the game has reached its most consequential moments, Olson has generally been one of Atlanta’s more dependable hitters.

His 127 wRC+ in high-leverage situations was driven by three homers, nine RBI, and a robust .600 slugging percentage. That distinction matters because Olson’s season has sometimes felt frustrating. His overall numbers are solid, but stretches of inconsistency and missed opportunities with runners aboard have made him an occasional target of criticism.

The leverage data tells a slightly different story. Olson hasn’t been a dominant RISP performer, but he has delivered some of his biggest swings when the win expectancy implications were at their highest.

Olson is the most prominent example because of his role in the lineup, but he’s not the only one.

The pattern appears for Jorge Mateo, as well, although the similarities to Olson mostly begin and end with this particular bucket. He has a 94 wRC+ in 22 RISP plate appearances but a 195 wRC+ in his seven high-leverage PAs.

Mateo is an even better example of why these buckets exist in the first place.

If you only looked at his RISP production, you’d conclude that he’s been mostly ordinary. But because high-leverage situations are measuring something different, he lands in a completely different category. His sample size is tiny, which means the numbers should be treated carefully, but it’s a good illustration of how a player’s reputation can change depending on which situations you’re emphasizing.

Despite the terrible start to the season he’s having, Ha-Seong Kim is also in this bucket (albeit with a tiny sample size). His 14 RISP plate appearances have resulted in an 83 wRC+, but in his nine high-leverage PAs, he’s produced a 126 wRC+.

Taken together, this group highlights why leverage matters. If you only looked at RISP production, you'd miss some of the hitters who have done their best work when the game was most likely to swing one way or the other (and also, Ha-Seong Kim).

Bucket 4: The Strugglers

This is self-explanatory, right? These guys aren’t good in either situation.

The thing here is that when you’re off to a franchise-best 45-21 start, you don’t have very many players where this is an issue.

And for all of them that are, it’s an extremely small sample size. Sandy León has a -100 wRC+ in both situations, but it totals just 10 combined PAs. Kyle Farmer has a 29 wRC+ with RISP, but hasn’t gotten a high-leverage plate appearance.

What This Means For Atlanta

Let’s zoom out a bit.

The Braves have either been exceptionally lucky or Alex Anthopoulos has built this year’s roster very well, as they haven’t had to rely on anyone who genuinely struggles to produce in either situation.

I’m leaning towards crediting Anthopoulos here, as several of the new roster additions like Mauricio Dubón and Jorge Mateo are the best on the team at the moment at producing in clutch situations. Overperformance in key situations like that can help paper over issues elsewhere on the roster, like Drake Baldwin being on the injured list or Ronald Acuña Jr.’s slow start to the season from a power perspective.

But at the same time, it throws out some warning signs. One of the arguments I’ve seen in support of struggling third baseman Austin Riley is that he’s still “a clutch hitter”, with his RISP stats being cited as evidence. The problem is, we’ve established that he’s not performing in clutch moments, just with runners in scoring position.

One last time:

A hit with runners in scoring position isn’t automatically clutch.

A clutch hit doesn’t always happen with runners in scoring position.

The two overlap more often than not, which is why fans tend to use them interchangeably. But they’re measuring different things. One measures your ability to capitalize on opportunities. The other measures your ability to perform when the game is hanging in the balance.

For Atlanta, the good news is that there aren’t many glaring holes in either category.

The Braves have hitters who excel in both situations, hitters who are better with RISP than in true leverage spots, and hitters who seem to save some of their best work for the moments that matter most. That’s part of what happens when you build one of the deepest lineups in baseball.

It also serves as a reminder to be careful about the narratives we create.

A player can rack up RBI and still struggle in high-leverage situations. Another can have middling RISP numbers while consistently delivering when the game is on the line. Both can feel “clutch” depending on which moments fans remember.

The next time the Braves load the bases in the third inning or bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth, remember that those situations aren’t created equal.

Neither are the hitters stepping into the batter’s box.

The ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow had been damaged beyond repair. At the time, there wasn’t really a roadmap for what came next. Team physician Dr. Frank Jobe proposed an experimental procedure that had never successfully returned a Major League pitcher to the mound. The surgery involved taking a tendon from John’s wrist and using it to replace the damaged ligament.

Jobe reportedly told John he had roughly a one percent chance of pitching again.

Today, the procedure is so commonplace that it’s named after the pitcher who first underwent it. Fans barely blink when a pitcher tears his UCL. We discuss timelines, recovery schedules, and expected return dates. What was once considered a desperate last resort has become another obstacle modern medicine expects athletes to overcome.

Baseball changes quickly. Sometimes our assumptions don’t.

For many fans, Jacob deGrom still exists in the category of pitcher he’d have occupied a decade ago: an electric arm whose injury history makes him impossible to trust. But the sport has become increasingly comfortable betting on elite pitchers returning from surgeries and injuries that once would have ended careers.

Which brings us to a somewhat unconventional trade deadline idea.

While much of baseball focuses on acquiring Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the Atlanta Braves should be calling the Texas Rangers about Jacob deGrom.

Let’s talk about it.

The Results Were Better Than The Process

Atlanta’s starting pitching either had a great weekend or a terrible weekend, depending on who you ask.

The half-full glass would look at it this way:

Veteran Martín Pérez had perfectly crumulent results on Friday night, allowing three earned runs in his five innings before yielding to the bullpen. Spencer Strider matched him on Saturday, allowing three runs on five hits. And Bryce Elder outperformed both of them with two earned runs on only two hits on Sunday afternoon as Atlanta swept the Pirates.

But the other side of this coin is that the process to get to much of that doesn’t feel sustainable.

Pérez’s max velocity was…90.0 mph, although it didn’t stop him from putting up an average exit velocity allowed of only 81.2 mph. Strider had only six whiffs (including none on 20 swings against his fastball) and a 14% CSW. Elder was, in a sign of the changing times, the most reliable, leaning on his new cutter to navigate the loss of his four-seamer on Sunday afternoon.

Is this going to work in the postseason? The growing consensus among Braves Country is that it won’t, and that Atlanta needs to prioritize adding an impact starter at this year’s deadline.

Why Everyone Will Focus On Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal is the obvious answer.

The Tigers ace has won the last two American League Cy Young Awards, posting a 2.30 ERA across 387.1 innings with 469 strikeouts and just 68 walks. Alongside Chris Sale, Cristopher Sánchez, and Garrett Crochet, he’s firmly established himself among baseball’s elite left-handed starters.

Any contender looking to upgrade its rotation would be interested.

That’s exactly the problem.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently connected Skubal to practically every established contender, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and Philadelphia Phillies. If Detroit makes him available, there won’t be a shortage of suitors. There rarely is when one of the five or ten best pitchers in baseball reaches the market.

And while Atlanta probably has the prospect capital to participate in those conversations, that’s not the same thing as being the favorite to win them.

The Braves would be competing against organizations with deeper farm systems, larger payrolls, and every bit as much urgency to win now. The result is a bidding war that could quickly escalate beyond what Atlanta is willing to pay, particularly for a pitcher who can become a free agent after the season.

That’s not an argument against Skubal.

If the Tigers make him available, the Braves should absolutely pick up the phone.

But the better question isn’t whether Skubal would help Atlanta.

It’s whether there’s another frontline starter who offers a more realistic intersection of talent, availability, and long-term control.

That’s where the conversation gets interesting.

The Better Question: Who’s Actually Available?

The easiest part of trade deadline coverage is identifying the pitchers you’d like to acquire.

Logan Webb would look great in a Braves uniform. Tarik Skubal would pair with Chris Sale to be the most intimidating starting duo since the days of Maddux and Glavine and Smoltz.

The hard part is finding a way to acquire them.

Fans often discuss trade targets as if every player in baseball exists on the same marketplace. In reality, the most important question isn’t whether a player would help your team. It’s whether his current team is willing to move him.

And that’s where the trade deadline gets complicated.

The mediocrity of the American League makes this exercise more challenging than even the initial years of the expanded playoffs have been.

As of Sunday night, only five American League teams have winning records. Yet thanks to the Wild Card structure, nearly every club can still convince itself that a postseason run is possible.

The result is a league filled with teams that should probably listen on veterans but aren’t quite ready to declare themselves sellers.

We’ve seen this before. Last season, several clubs waited until the final days before the deadline to determine their direction. Front offices spent weeks preparing for conversations that never materialized while simultaneously scrambling to engage on opportunities that emerged unexpectedly.

That uncertainty makes it difficult to identify realistic trade targets in June.

But it also creates opportunity.

The Rangers sit in an especially interesting position.

At 32-33, they’re currently occupying the final Wild Card spot despite a losing record. They’re close enough to justify buying, but far enough from contention that a bad few weeks could force uncomfortable conversations. They’re a disappointing 25th in runs scored while being top five in runs allowed, but with Jacob deGrom almost single-handedly carrying their rotation - no other starter has an ERA below 3.50.

And if Texas ultimately decides to sell, Jacob deGrom becomes one of the most fascinating names in baseball.

Not because he’s the best pitcher available.

Because he might be the best pitcher available who actually has a chance of becoming a member of the Atlanta Braves.

The Case For Jacob deGrom

There are three predominant reasons why Jacob deGrom, if he becomes available, makes a ton of sense for the Atlanta Braves.

He’s Still A Frontline Starter

deGrom was the consensus best starter of the late 2010s. The right-hander won consecutive Cy Young awards in 2018 & 2019 after 421.0 innings of 2.05 baseball. He struck out 32% of batters faced while walking just 5.5% and sitting in the high-90s with his fastball.

This may genuinely be the reddest statcast card I’ve ever seen.

But then injuries struck, with deGrom throwing just 156.1 innings combined between 2021 & 2022 and then walking in free agency, signing with the Texas Rangers.

Since returning from his second Tommy John surgery, deGrom’s been a bit of a different pitcher - he’s deliberately backed off his velocity a bit in an effort to stay healthy and ended up covering 172.2 innings last season at a 2.97 ERA. He’s currently at a 3.18 ERA this season, seeing some small-sample-size regression in his fastball results but nothing to suggest that aging curves are returning him to mere mortal status.

The Contract Is Long Enough To Matter

DeGrom signed for five years and $185M with the Rangers after 2022, adding on a sixth year via club option that would cover his age-40 season.

And the remainder of that contract is the main reason the Braves should be interested in deGrom over Skubal.

Skubal is on a one-year, $32M arbitration award that set a record when it was awarded. Any team acquiring him is getting a very expensive rental, with Skubal represented by big game-hunting agent Scott Boras. The consensus #1 free agent in this winter’s class, it’s believed that Skubal and Boras are looking to set a new record for a pitching contract in annual value. While he won’t break the length of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year deal he signed at the age of 25 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the $42M annual value of Zack Wheeler’s three-year, $126M deal signed prior to 2025 is absolutely in danger of falling.

Giving up premier talent for a rental in Skubal isn’t a concern for the Braves if they acquire deGrom, as the righty is already under contract. His $38M salary for this season would be about $12M on a prorated basis for the rest of the season, almost exactly matching the remainder of the funds they saved from the 2nd PED suspension of Jurickson Profar. He’s owed $37M in 2027, which is a jump in payroll for the Braves but one that can be easily covered by the expiring contract of Ha-Seong Kim ($20M), Raisel Iglesias ($16M), and Joe Jiménez ($9M).

The 2028 club option has a bit of a complication, being priced at $20M but converting to a $37M player option if deGrom finishes next season with 160+ innings pitches, finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting, and does not go on the injured list.

That’s a tradeoff that Atlanta would love to make.

And there are other, off-the-field, reasons to think that deGrom would be willing to waive the no-trade clause he was given by Texas in the deal.

The Braves Already Have Connections

deGrom went to Stetson University in DeLand, FL, where the Mets took him in the 9th round. Growing up in Central Florida, he’s admitted to being a Braves fan in his childhood, with Chipper Jones (a fellow Florida native) being his childhood idol. Said deGrom, “Chipper Jones. He was from Pierson [Fla.], which is 10 minutes, 15 minutes from my house, and played for the Braves. I grew up kind of a Braves fan just ’cause of that, and I played infield, so that’s who I kinda looked up to as a player.”

Due to those connections, deGrom was reportedly interested in signing with the Braves in free agency, but Atlanta either wasn’t able or wasn’t interested in reaching the same financial stratosphere as what deGrom received from the Rangers.

There’s another factor that helps Atlanta in this: deGrom’s ties to the current Braves coaching staff. The end of deGrom’s tenure with New York overlapped with current Braves pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who assumed that role for the 2020 season. The two were reportedly said to have a good relationship, with Hefner receiving at least some of the credit for deGrom’s career-best start to 2021 (1.08 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 92 innings) before going down with lat and flexor issues that prematurely ended his season.

The Risk Is Real—But So Is The Upside

It’s important to point out that deGrom was, at one point in time, the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball. And in accordance with the stereotype of extreme velocity pitchers, he eventually went down with injury. DeGrom is in that rare group of MLB starters that has had two Tommy John surgeries in his career, with the first coming while in the minors in 2010 and the second, commonly referred to as a ‘revision’, coming shortly after he debuted for the Rangers in 2023.

While he’s taken measures to mitigate the risk, including a new focus on “mechanical simplicity” and intentionally pitching below his capability when he feels minor discomfort or otherwise not himself, his injury history and the financial commitment make him a risky proposition for the Braves.

But of course he’s risky - every frontline starter is.

The bigger question isn’t whether Jacob deGrom comes with risk.

It’s whether the market is pricing that risk correctly.

Because every reason that makes fans nervous about deGrom - his age, his injury history, the remaining money on his contract -is also a reason he could become available in the first place.

Tarik Skubal may be the better pitcher. He may even be the safer pitcher.

But the Braves aren’t operating in a vacuum. They’re competing against every contender in baseball, many of whom possess deeper farm systems and larger payrolls. Winning a bidding war for the most coveted arm on the market is difficult. Finding value where others see complications is how Alex Anthopoulos has built much of Atlanta’s roster.

And that’s what makes deGrom so fascinating.

If Texas falls out of contention, the Braves wouldn’t be acquiring a mid-rotation arm or a short-term patch. They’d be acquiring a pitcher who still has the ability to form one of baseball's most formidable postseason duos alongside Chris Sale while remaining under contract long enough to help solve questions that extend beyond this October.

The Braves should absolutely check in on Tarik Skubal, and Alex Anthopoulos will. He checks in on everybody - league polls frequently have him near the top for “most engaged” baseball executive, classifying him as “aggressive” at initiating conversations to gauge potential trade interest.

But if they’re looking for the intersection of elite talent, future control, realistic availability, and organizational fit, Jacob deGrom may be the most interesting starting pitcher on the trade market.

Let’s see if Texas gives them the opportunity.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Definitely, the bottom of the 7th.

Atlanta was trailing 2-0 and outside of loading the bases in the first (on a double and two walks) and coming away with nothing, had registered exactly one other HIT.

So when the 7th inning came around and the Braves started looking like a rally was brewing, manager Walt Weiss got to work. Dominic Smith got on base thanks to a throwing error on a grounder to third, while Mike Yastrzemski and Jorge Mateo both drew walks to load the bases.

That’s when Weiss started pulling the levers.

In place of Sandy León coming up to bat, he was pinch-hit for by Michael Harris II. The same Michael Harris that hadn’t been in the starting lineup since leaving Friday night’s game late with back tightness.

Didn’t matter. Harris laced the second pitch he saw into the right field corner, clearing the bases thanks to Jorge Mateo’s speed - he hit 30.5 ft/sec on the sprint home - and staking the Braves to a lead.

Shout to the excellent call from BravesVision broadcaster Brandon Gaudin:

And just as pleasing was the radio call from Ben Ingram (courtesy of 680 The Fan):

While things got a bit shaky late - more on that in a minute - the Braves managed to seal only their third sweep of the season.

Today’s Player of the Game

With 73% of the vote, it’s going to Michael Harris II.

We’ve already covered the home run, but I think the process there tells you a lot about the amount of trust and confidence this coaching staff has in Harris to produce in virtually any situation.

He got the hit off a lefty. The only reliever that Pittsburgh had throwing was Evan Sisk, so it’s not like Atlanta was rolling the dice here and hoping to get a favorable matchup for Mike. The fact that it was Mike going up there meant, to Weiss, it WAS a favorable matchup.

Not that Harris has ever been bad versus southpaws - a career 95 wRC+ entering this season - but there’s been talk about protecting him against the tougher ones for a few seasons now. This season, albeit in a small sample size of 86 plate appearances vs southpaws, Michael has a 128 wRC+, the highest mark of his career.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the turnaround for Harris after a dreadful start to 2025. He’s now sitting at 2.1 fWAR, a top-50 mark in all of MLB this season. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) and Andy Pages (Dodgers) are the only centerfielders to sit ahead of him on the leaderboards, but because they’re sharing space on the National League ballot with Harris, he faces an uphill battle to be elected to this summer’s All-Star Team for the Midsummer Classic.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Atlanta’s quiet offense today - just three hits and four walks - there was a lot that came out of the pitching staff today that’s worth discussion.

Bryce Elder finished six innings with just two earned runs allowed, coming on two hits and two walks. That felt incredibly unlikely in the moment, as he gave up a leadoff homer to Spencer Horwitz and generally spent too long behind in the count today. It was clear that Elder didn’t have his best stuff, particularly his four-seam fastball, which has become his primary pitch to lefties. Elder was in three different 3-0 counts today, tied for a season-high.

However, this is a new version of Bryce Elder. Previous models would have been blown up for six runs in 4.1 innings and forced an already overworked bullpen to cover more than half the frame. 2026’s Bryce Elder swapped out the four-seamer for his cutter, ramped back up his sinker usage in those situations, and still gave Atlanta a quality start. It’s safe to say that he’s probably the second-most reliable starter for the Braves right now, behind only Chris Sale.

Reynaldo López came out for a scoreless seventh, but ran into trouble in the 8th after a one-out line drive single and a walk, with Tyler Kinley being called upon to bail him out. I’m still not sure what the organization does with Reynaldo López, but I can’t imagine he’s anywhere near the Bullpen Tree of Trust anytime soon.

And with Robert Suarez getting a second consecutive day off after a heavy workload last week, Walt Weiss turned to Didier Fuentes for his first career save. Fuentes completed the drill in 20 pitches, 15 of which were strikes, and with a new-ish pitch mix that was more sliders (11) than fastballs (9). While he still isn’t using the nascent splitter that he’ll need to build trust in as he moves back to the rotation next year, he’s clearly much improved from the too-inexperienced youngster who got shelled in four MLB starts last year.

Look at this beautiful slider to seal the win.

No deep analysis here, just a pretty pitch that I think deserves to be appreciated.

Per MLB.com, Fuentes, at 20 years and 355 days old, is the youngest MLB pitcher to record a save since Andres Munoz (20y, 255d) in 2019 and the youngest to record one for the Braves since Mike McQueen (20d, 346d) in 1971.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are flying to Chicago today for tomorrow’s off day before the start of a three-game series against the White Sox at what is now called “Rate Field” - no longer Guaranteed. Grant Holmes (4-2, 3.86) will take on Braves legend Erick Fedde (1-5, 4.94) at 7:40 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 80° and intermittent clouds, wind SW at 7 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II, who left Friday night’s game late with tightness in his back, is out of the lineup for a second consecutive game. Manager Walt Weiss said on Saturday he’d be available off the bench for a pinch-hit appearance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

1B Spencer Horwitz
2B Nick Gonzalez
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Ryan O‘Hearn
DH Marcell Ozuna
3B Tyler Callihan
CF Jake Mangum
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

• Brandon Lowe, who left last night’s game in the ninth inning, isn’t in the lineup today but told reporters before the game that he believes he avoided any sort of significant injury.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-3, 2.63)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.63 ERA / 3.07 xERA / 3.34 FIP

• 20.9% K / 7.2% BB / 13.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% four-seamer, 28% slider, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 9% sinker

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 31% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 1% cutter

Who to watch:

• Only six Pirates have ever faced Elder in the majors, with Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis being 1-3, Bryan Reynolds being 2-8, and Jared Triolo being 1-4 with a homer

Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Bubba Chandler (2-6, 5.05 ERA)

(Per MLB.com’s Jason Mackey, lefty Mason Montgomery will work as an opener today)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.05 ERA / 4.47 xERA / 5.05 FIP

• 21.2 K% / 14.7 BB% / 6.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (50%, 98.4 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 92.0 mph)

• Slider (14%, 89.6 mph)

• Sweeper (8%, 87.9 mph)

• Sinker (7%, 97.8 mph)

• Curveball (3%, 85.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seam dominant mix without significant tendencies. Changeup is the main secondary, but he will use all his ancillary pitches in any situation.

vs RHH: Fastball-dominant mix without significant tendencies, other than a reduction in sinker use in favor of the changeup with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Only four current Braves hitters have faced Ashcraft and the only one who has a hit off of him, Michael Harris II, isn’t in today’s lineup.

Braves Bullpen Status

Sure glad tomorrow’s an off day!

Likely available:

• Reynaldo López has had two days off and should be good to go, while Carlos Carrasco still hasn’t gotten into a game since being selected to the roster on the 2nd.

Used recently:

• Everyone else. Didier Fuentes and Robert Suarez are the leverage arms that got Saturday off, and should be good to go for today.

Potential limitations:

• Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Dee both just pitched back-to-back and should be given the day off, while Dylan Dodd’s coming off a 20-pitch outing and 35 pitches in three days, so he might be down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta can likely figure this one out, but a long start out of Bryce Elder sure would be nice!

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Gregory Soto and Wilber Dotel both have yet to throw in this series and should be good to go this afternoon in the finale.

Used recently

• Dennis Santana, lefty Evan Sisk, and Brandon Bidois all pitched in game one and should be available today. Yohan Ramirez got 20 or so pitches on Saturday, but based on recent workloads, isn’t off the table for the finale.

Potential limitations

• Carmen Mlodzinski, who is a starter by trade and had a 55-pitch outing on Thursday, is likely down one more day before he can be used for bulk innings again.

Quick takeaway:

• Pittsburgh has all their bullpen bullets available to avoid a sweep.

What to Watch Today

• What can Atlanta do against lefty Mason Montgomery in the first inning of this one? In his 20 pitches last night, the Braves didn’t register a single whiff on ten swings, although none of their three batted balls (one hard-hit) fell for hits. He dealt with the bottom of the order yesterday, but he’ll get the top of it this afternoon.

• Bubba Chandler’s completed more than five innings only once this year, and many of those were against lesser offenses than Atlanta’s. How quickly can the Braves get into the soft underbelly of the Pittsburgh bullpen, and will Montgomery working as an opener change the calculus for Chandler

  • The Braves also need to capitalize on Chandler’s walks - he’s terrible in that regard and they need to drive those runners in.

• Can Atlanta break their bad luck in sweep opportunities?

Final Thought

The Braves are comfortably favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can the Braves complete the drill and lock down a sweep?

Let’s Talk About It

No livestream this morning - I had coffee on the back deck with my wife (there’s a Johnny Cash quote about this) and then took the kids to the community pool, but we’ll have a Postcast this afternoon.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

It sure felt like the bottom of the fifth.

The first half of the game was a back-and-forth affair - two Atlanta runs in the first inning and another in the third, before the Pirates tied it up with two in the fourth and one in the fifth.

So as they got to their third ABs of the game off of Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft, the top of the Braves order got to work.

Ronald Acuña Jr. singled on an inside sinker to left, advancing to 2nd on a one-out Matt Olson line drive. The duo then advanced 90 feet on a double steal.

Let me repeat that: MATTHEW KENT OLSON STOLE A BASE.

Here’s video proof:

Ozzie Albies then scored Ronald on a sacrifice fly to right, with Olson moving up to third. That was somewhat unnecessary, with Dominic Smith hitting one of the most improbable homers I’ve seen in quite some time.

Braxton Ashcraft threw him a 97.5 mph fastball, on the upper rail and away. With a less-than-full swing, coming in at just 64.6 mph, Smith got it in the air at 93.4 mph to the opposite field and just tucked it inside the foul pole.

I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my life, but I can’t remember many times when a home run was hit that was slower than the pitch that was thrown.

After the inning ended, which also ended the outing of Braxton Ashcraft (6 ER on 9 H), Pittsburgh only once got a runner past second and never got them in.

Today’s Player of the Game

Since there was no Postcast, I let the Braves Today Discord vote, and it’s going to Dominic Smith.

Dominic started off hot, hitting four homers in his first 50 plate appearances as a member of the Braves. But after missing out on regular starts while Michael Harris II was nursing his left quad, Dom somewhat came back to earth - since May 17th, he was hitting just .213/.255/.340 with one home run entering tonight’s game.

Tonight’s two-hit performance was credited to his ability to perform even with sporadic playing time, with Smith telling reporters (including MLB.com) that as a veteran, he knows how to be prepared and take advantage of his opportunities. The fact that he enjoys the organization only helps things.

“I put a lot of work in, so I’m very confident in my game,” Smith said. “I’m just getting the freedom to play and it’s a great group of guys in that locker room who not only want to win, but they want to go out and compete at a high level. You feed off of that, and it’s fun.”

He added a late walk in this one, bringing his line to .309/.345/.485 with six homers and 28 RBI.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to the good offensive performance by the top of the order, and doing it against a tough starter in Braxton Ashcraft to boot, I want to talk about Spencer Strider.

And not in a good, “I think he’s about to turn a corner” way.

Strider pitched five innings tonight, allowing three runs on five hits with two walks and three strikeouts. It took him 84 pitches, only 49 of which were strikes.

The results were…okay. I’m concerned about the process.

Strider induced 43 swings tonight, but picked up only six whiffs, and NONE on 20 swings against the fastball. He had just 6 called strikes, as well, so his 14% CSW is just as poor as his 14% whiff rate. Adding to the…concern? Poor performance? His four-seam fastball averaged only 94.8 mph, half a mph below his season average, and maxed out at just 96.7.

I don’t know what to think about Strider, at this point, other than the smart position is probably to not count on his as one of your three frontline starters for the postseason. If he gets there and is one, great, but that can’t be Plan A, B, or C at this point.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are in position to sweep the series tomorrow afternoon in Truist Park, with Bryce Elder (2-6, 4.89) getting the ball opposite Bubba Chandler (2-6, 4.89) at 1:35 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 87° and intermittent clouds, wind S at 7 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Austin Wynns
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II, who left last night’s game late with tightness in his back, is being held out of this one.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

1B Spencer Horwitz
DH Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Ryan O’Hearn
2B Nick Gonzalez
CF Oneil Cruz
C Endy Rodriguez
3B Tyler Callihan
SS Jared Triolo

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a load management day for slugging 2B Brandon Lowe at designated hitter, while Nick Gonzalez Tyler Callihan checks in to play third.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (3-1, 3.77)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.77 ERA / 2.93 xERA / 4.69 FIP

• 31.5% K / 13.4% BB / 18.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 44% four-seamer, 21% curveball, 20% slider, 15% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 36% slider, 7% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• There isn’t a ton of experience on this roster off of Strider - only two hitters have faced him more than three times. Henry Davis is 2-5 with a homer, while Spencer Horwitz is 2-3 and Jared Triolo is 2-5.

  • On the flip side, Bryan Reynolds is 1-7 and Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O’Hearn are all 0-3.

Opposing Starter: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (5-2, 2.77 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.77 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 3.04 FIP

• 27.3 K% / 5.7 BB% / 21.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (32%, 97.0 mph)

• Curveball (25%, 85.1 mph)

• Slider (24%, 91.9 mph)

• Sinker (15%, 96.7 mph)

• Splitter (4%, 91.6 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seam dominant mix, one that ramps up slider usage when behind (think of this more like a cutter than a slider), sinkers early and when behind, and curveballs when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: A four-pitch mix, anchored around ‘two-and-a-half’ fastballs and a breaking ball. The four-seam and sinker usage gets juiced when he’s behind in the count, with the sinker persisting into the middle of the at-bat (prior to two strikes). The curveball use ramps up when ahead and with two strikes, when that cutter-ish slider also sees an uptick in usage.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Exactly one Braves hitter has ever seen Ashcraft: Dominic Smith, who is 1-2 with a single.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Tyler Kinley’s not thrown since Wednesday, and Dylan Dodd hasn’t gotten into a game since Thursday.

Used recently:

• All four of the top leverage arms pitched yesterday, but none of them with a pitch count onerous enough to keep them out of today’s game.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes did just complete a back-to-back, though, and looked to be dragging behind on his fastball velo a bit in the second appearance. He’s almost certainly down for today’s game. Reynaldo López, who threw 36 pitches on Thursday, is likely down for today since the Braves do have another long man in Carlos Carrasco.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces they need to lock down a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Yohan Ramirez and Wilber Dotel, who each had 40+ pitch outings during the week, should be available after a few days of rest.

Used recently

• Dennis Santana threw just seven pitches last night and can come back today.

Potential limitations

• Lefty Evan Sisk threw 28 pitches last night and is likely down for today, as is middle reliever Brandon Bidois (24 pitches).

Quick takeaway:

• Pittsburgh has most of its leverage pieces all available, including two fresh lefties in closer Gregory Soto and middle reliever Mason Montgomery.

What to Watch Today

• Braxton Ashcraft’s having an amazing season so far, probably the second-best starter on this team outside of Paul Skenes. Can the Braves be the elusive stumbling block for the breakout righty?

• How does the flyball-prone Spencer Strider do against a Pirates that excels at both getting the ball in the air and to the pull side? Watch for Brandon Lowe - he’s punished four-seamers to the tune of a .327 average & .836 slug this year and has one of the league’s best pull air percentages at 27.6%.

Final Thought

The Pirates are narrowly favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U eight runs). This one comes down to which offense can get the big hit off of a quality starter on the other side.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the 5th for Atlanta.

The Braves entered the frame having had opportunities to get to Pirates starter Mitch Keller, but not being able to get the crooked number on the board. They did it in this frame.

Michael Harris II started off with a line drive back up the middle, coming on the first pitch, before Matt Olson did the same thing on a center-cut sinker.

Ozzie Albies perhaps tried to do too much, flying out to the warning track on a changeup down, but after that, Atlanta went back to the simple approach. Mauricio Dubón, as he tends to do, shortened up his swing and shot an upper rail fastball down the right field line for a double, scoring Harris from 2nd. Dom Smith followed that up by going down to get a changeup below the zone and hitting a sac fly to center, allowing Matt Olson to score from third. The final run of the inning came from none other than Austin Riley, who got a sweeper that caught too much of the zone and shot it out to center for his own RBI double.

That spelled the end of the night for Mitch Keller, who battled but just couldn’t overcome all the batted ball contact. He finished with six runs on seven hits and three walks, striking out four in his 99 pitches but also allowing a homer.

Today’s Player of the Game

The Mitch Keller home run was surrendered to none other than Mauricio Dubón, his third in the last three games. The Postcast chat rewarded him with his third POTG award in that same stretch.

The homer was in the 3rd inning, where Dubón got a hanging curveball and didn’t miss it, pulling it to left at 101.2 off the bat. (This was the first time in Dubón’s career he’s hit three homers in three consecutive games.) The homer cashed in an Ozzie Albies walk, which he drew on five pitches immediately before Dubón came to the plate.

After tonight’s RBI double, Dubón is batting an absurd .353/.411/.608 (184 wRC+) with 30 RBI in 56 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. While RISP isn’t a direct correlation for clutch performance - FanGraphs has a separate leaderboard for performance in leverage situations I plan to dive into and compare with the team’s RISP stats next week - but Dubón’s noteworthy approach change in those situations makes it apparent that this is a sustainable skill for the utilityman.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Atlanta’s offense tonight, I can’t get over what the pitching did in this one. Martín Pérez allowed three runs in his five innings, coming on just three hits. All three of those hits and runs came in the third inning, where he allowed a leadoff walk, a double, a sac fly, and two more singles.

In the game, Pérez’s 13 balls in play came out to an average of just 81.2 mph, with the only two hard-hit balls being the first two hits of the third inning. It’s a remarkable achievement for a changeup-dominant pitcher who averaged just 88.8 on his fastball tonight and maxed out at 90.0 mph. While he’s usually not good for more than five innings or shutout outings, he’s proven to be pretty reliable as a backend starter that can five-and-dive while keeping you in the game.

After Pérez, Atlanta executed their high-leverage pitching plan. Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Robert Suarez all pitched scoreless innings to get things to the 9th, combining for only one strikeout but also allowing no hits or walks. Raisel Iglesias was a bit shaky in the 9th, allowing a base hit and a walk, but got out of it for his 30th consecutive save opportunity converted (dating back to last season).

The backend quartet of Fuentes, Lee, Suarez, and Iglesias have pitched more than 100 combined innings this season with an ERA of just 0.99. Add in that Tyler Kinley appears to have regained a lower limb perch in the Bullpen Tree of Trust and Atlanta’s relief corps is as deep and strong as it’s always been.

What You’ll Be Talking About 2: Electric Boogaloo

Michael Harris II was removed from tonight’s game for the start of the 9th inning, with Eli White going in to play defense for the final half-inning. Manager Walt Weiss said after the game that it was some mild back soreness for Harris, per friend-of-the-program Chad Bishop of the AJC, and that Harris would likely be available and in the lineup for Saturday’s game.

Jake and I discussed this on the Postcast, but with Atlanta’s lead in the NL East being 8.5 games and the team currently being 22 games over .500, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets the day off as a precaution.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta has a late afternoon start for game two of the series, with Spencer Strider (3-1, 3.77) taking on Braxton Ashcraft (5-2, 2.77) at 4:10 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind S at 6 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Mauricio Dubón, who has hit two homers in the last two days, gets another start at shortstop and swaps places with Michael Harris.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

3B Nick Gonzalez
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
DH Marcell Ozuna
CF Oneil Cruz
RF Jhostynxon Garcia
1B Spencer Horwitz
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

• Three lefties and a switch hitter versus a lefty-handed Braves starter.

Hot hitters for Pittsburgh:

• In the last 15 days, several Pirates are absolutely raking right now:

  • Bryan Reynolds is hitting .381/.500/.619 with six XBH (including two homers)

  • Oneil Cruz is hitting .326/.453/.605 with four homers and 11 RBI

  • Spencer Horwitz is hitting .306/.390/.510 with three homers.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (3-3, 2.79)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.79 ERA / 4.34 xERA / 4.15 FIP

• 20.5% K / 8.8% BB / 11.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 53% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 26% cutter, 20% sinker, 11% curveball, 7% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• There isn’t a ton of experience on this roster off of Pérez - only six hitters even have a single AB off of him - but Brandon Lowe is 3-9 with three RBI and Marcell Ozuna, while not having homered, is 4-7 with four RBI.

Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Keller (5-2, 4.35 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.35 ERA / 4.37 xERA / 3.38 FIP

• 18.2 K% / 7.1 BB% / 11.1% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (33%, 93.4 mph)

• Sweeper (18%, 82.3 mph)

• Sinker (16%, 92.2 mph)

• Changeup (10%, 88.9 mph)

• Slider (9%, 87.7 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 78.3 mph)

• Cutter (6%, 90.1 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-sequenced mix, anchored by the four-seamer. Changeup and sweeper ramp up when ahead, four-seamer and sinker when behind, with sweeper as the putaway pitch.

vs RHH: A three-pitch mix, anchored around two fastballs and a breaking ball. The sinker is more prevalent early in the count and before getting to two strikes, while the four-seamer is most used when behind and the sweeper takes over (at the expense of the sinker) when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Watch out for Ronald Acuña Jr. today. In 19 career ABs off of Keller, he’s hitting .421 with a 1.371 OPS, three homers, and four RBI. Matt Olson’s 6-12 with a homer, while Austin Riley and Mauricio Dubón are both 4-10.

  • Counterpoint: Dominic Smith and Jorge Mateo are both 0-3, while Ha-Seong Kim is a brutal 0-11 off of Keller.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• All of Atlanta’s leverage arms should be good for this one.

Used recently:

• Didier Fuentes and Dylan Dodd both threw less than 20 pitches last night and can likely come back, if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Reynaldo López struggled in the 9th, requiring 36 pitches and causing Carlos Carrasco to get up and start tossing. He might not be available for this one.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces they need to lock down a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Most of Pittsburgh's leverage arms haven’t thrown since either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Used recently

• Wilber Dotel threw 41 pitches on Tuesday, but after two days off, should be available tonight.

Potential limitations

• With Yohan Ramirez throwing 40 pitches on Wednesday and demoted starter Carmen Mlodzinski throwing 55 yesterday, I’m expecting both men to be down tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• Pittsburgh has its leverage pieces all available, including three lefties in closer Gregory Soto, setup man Evan Sisk, and middle reliever Mason Montgomery.

What to Watch Today

• Mitch Keller is looking for elusive success against Atlanta - In his last five starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA.

  • Danger of small sample sizes, though. That ERA is heavily colored by getting blasted by 2023’s generational Braves offense for eight runs on 12 hits in five innings. He allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, a 6.2-inning masterpiece in 2024 and a walk-filled abbreviated outing (3.2 innings) in 2025.

• Any dangers of a Marcell Ozuna revenge game? The Big Bear’s hitting just .190/.277/.305 this season, but has been very good against Pérez.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Martín Pérez avoiding the big inning and leaving Atlanta’s offense an opportunity to stay in it.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.